IGCEP 2025-35: Revising the Plan While Demand Shifts under Solar

ISMO submitted its revised Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan for 2025-35 to NEPRA in August 2025, as part of the Integrated System Plan. The revision updates the 2024-34 plan filed in April 2024. The most useful number in the document is not a capacity figure. ISMO reports that the national grid's load factor fell from 69 per cent in 2015 to 57 per cent in 2024. The plan assumes 8,120 MW of net-metered solar on the NGC system by 2035, with 2,400 MW added in FY2025 alone, plus 900 MW in Karachi.

The plan compares scenarios on the present value of generation investment and operation to 2035. Indicative plans in Pakistan have repeatedly been overridden by procurement decisions taken elsewhere. We would treat the 8,120 MW net-metering figure with caution in both directions. The plan derives it partly from one year of solar panel import volumes, which is a thin basis for a ten-year projection.